Why Missouri’s Shane Ray Is Such an Intriguing Possible Draft Pick for Bears
Published by Zach Kruse on February 6, 2015
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears need talent on defense in the worst way. Missouri’s Shane Ray figures to be one of the first defensive players taken in the 2015 NFL draft.
Naturally, the two have been linked early on in the draft process—with Ray representing one of the initial favorites for the Bears to take at No. 7 overall come late April.
In fact, four of the top draft analysts—Matt Miller of Bleacher Report, Dane Brugler of CBS Sports, Josh Norris of Rotoworld and NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah—have the Bears taking Ray in their pre- or post-Super Bowl mock drafts.
Yes, the calendar still reads February. Yes, the NFL Scouting Combine and free agency are important events standing between now and the draft. Situations can and will change. But the early harmony among mock drafts does give legs to the idea that Ray could be Chicago’s choice in the first round.
Understanding why Ray is such an intriguing potential draft pick for the Bears is a study in matching need with both talent and opportunity.
There’s no questioning the need. The Bears have allowed more points—920, to be exact—than any other team in the NFL since 2013. Opponents averaged 28.8 points per game over the last two seasons, with eight teams—or a quarter of those faced by the Bears—scoring 38 or more. Chicago did not finish better than 30th in yards or points allowed during either 2013 or 2014.
The results demanded change, and change has come, at least at the top. The Bears fired head coach Marc Trestman and defensive coordinator Mel Tucker, replacing the duo with John Fox and Vic Fangio. Fox has long been considered one of the better defensive coaches in the NFL, while Fangio presided over one of the league’s most dominant defenses over the last four years in San Francisco.
While Fox and Fangio will almost certainly get more out of their defensive personnel than Trestman and Tucker, coaches can only do so much. At some point, the talent between the white lines needs to meet coaching in the middle.
The personnel in Chicago is not in great shape. An aging defense will get younger in a hurry if linebacker Lance Briggs and cornerback Charles Tillman move on, but there are precious few building blocks. The Bears need help at every level, and a switch to Fangio’s preferred 3-4 front will likely bring on a variety of changes to the existing roster.
The likely transition makes it absolutely critical that the Bears nail their first pick in the 2015 draft.
Expect Ray to be one of the names you hear most for Chicago at No. 7.
Miller said the Missouri product compares favorably to a certain pass-rusher down in South Florida.
“Ray reminds me of Cameron Wake,” Miller said. “A smaller (6’3″, 245 lbs) pass-rusher who dominates with agility in his lower half and flexibility in his hips and shoulders. Ray’s first step is a killer, and he can get the jump on blockers and win without being a physically dominant player in terms of strength.”
Wake—listed at 6’3″ and 249 pounds—has produced 63 sacks over his first six NFL seasons, including 35.0 over the last three. The Miami Dolphins have used him as both a 4-3 defensive end and 3-4 outside linebacker. He’s produced in both systems. Talent often transcends scheme.
Back in December, Jeremiah asked five NFL executives to compare Ray to a recent NFL draft pick. The results varied, but one name came up twice: Von Miller. The No. 2 overall pick back in 2011, Miller is also 6’3″ and scheme versatile. His 49.0 sacks over the last four seasons ranks third in the NFL, despite him missing seven games in 2013.
Fox knows a thing or two about using a player like Miller. In a similar system, which gives the outside linebacker position freedom to both stand up and play with his hand in the dirt, Ray may thrive.
“He has an outstanding get-off and he’s bendy working the edge,” one executive told Jeremiah. Another said he has “big-time burst off the edge.”
A fifth executive called Ray a “poor man’s DeMarcus Ware,” again noting his explosion as an edge player.
Jeremiah wasn’t as confident in his own evaluation, comparing Ray more to Cliff Avril and Jerry Hughes (the two players still combined for 14.5 sacks in 2014). But he was still more than complimentary to his overall abilities.
“Ray does have the skill set to develop into a double-digit sack artist at the next level,” Jeremiah wrote.
Lance Zierlein and his staff at NFL.com appear to agree. At the time of this writing, the draft database at NFL.com has Ray ranked as the third-best player in the class—trailing only defensive lineman Leonard Williams of USC and receiver Amari Cooper of Alabama.
Zierlein wrote a glowing review of Ray’s overall game:
It’s hard to find many weaknesses for Ray. He pursues the quarterback and the ball like it’s his last snap. An alpha male packaged in an explosive frame, Ray has the traits and skills to be a dominant pass rusher and potential Pro Bowler. He also has the athleticism and strength to play in any defensive front.
Explosive and powerful represent two very typical descriptions of pass-rushers, but rarely do the two come packaged together in one player.
Ray, who finished with 14.5 sacks and 22.5 tackles for loss for Missouri in 2014, appears to possess both.
“(Scouts) love his explosion off the ball,” longtime scout Russ Lande said, via Luke Thompson of Fox Sports. “Unlike most really high-end pass rushers, he’s a strong, powerful kid who can get off blocks at the point of attack.”
Not everyone is convinced.
While Brugler has Ray to the Bears in his current mock draft, he plans to make a switch after Chicago hired Fangio to run the defense.
“Ray has the best first step in the draft, and that initial quickness translates well to 4-3 defenses looking for an edge-rusher,” Brugler said. “However, with Chicago likely moving to a 3-4 now, I don’t like Ray at No. 7. My next mock update will have DT Danny Shelton there.”
The transition to a new position does cloud Ray’s evaluation. Projections from the college game to the NFL are already hard enough without a player possibly being thrust into a foreign scheme.
“Some feel different, but Ray is a 4-3 DE only for me,” Brugler said. “I don’t see an easy transition for him standing up and asking him to move to OLB. I don’t have him rated as highly as he’ll be drafted, mostly because he’s raw and still a work in progress in several areas, but his get-off quickness can’t be coached.”
Fangio would almost certainly find a way to use Ray and his impressive skill set. The best coaches aren’t tied down to one specific scheme. Adjusting for talent is part of the process. But it’s possible Fangio is looking for a different kind of player to build his defense around.
“If Vic Fangio does indeed bring the 3-4 defense to Chicago, Ray is an ideal fit on the edge with his speed,” Miller said. “Fangio was under a 49ers staff that loved length, though, and Ray doesn’t bring that to the table. If that’s the case, Florida’s Dante Fowler could be the guy the Bears target at No. 7.”
In recent years, the 49ers have drafted the likes of Aldon Smith (6’4″) and Aaron Lynch (6’5″). Both use length to their advantage. Then again, Ahmad Brooks and Corey Lemonier—two other edge-rushers used by Fangio in San Francisco—stand 6’3″. Fangio might be flexible.
A few things are clear.
The Bears need an influx of defensive talent, and Fangio’s defense will need a centerpiece pass-rusher to build around. Ray is undoubtedly one of the most gifted edge players in this year’s draft class, and it’s certainly possible he’ll be there when the Bears come on the clock at No. 7.
The next few months will add clarity to the picture. The combine provides a unique opportunity for teams to view athleticism and personality up close. It will be on the Bears and new general manager Ryan Pace to determine if Ray—a player compared to the likes of Cameron Wake and Von Miller—fits Chicago’s new vision on defense. If he does, the Bears could make good on many early mock draft projections slotting Ray to Chicago with the seventh overall pick.
All quotes obtained first-hand unless otherwise noted.
Zach Kruse covers the NFC North for Bleacher Report.
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