Bears Blitz

Published by Michael Rushton on May 29, 2009
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears

OK. So, we’ve all heard the news.  Jay Cutler is just Jeff George dusted with a Rick Mirer-like patina.  And Devin Hester?  Devin Hester will never be a No. 1 receiver.  Ever.  No matter what.  A return man?  Just look at what happened to Dante Hall.  So, just put down your No. 2 pencils and stop doodling.

Well, I beg to differ. And doodle, I will.

I think that all these comparisons of Jay Cutler to guys like Jeff George and Rick Mirer are done by those that simply haven’t been paying much attention to the actual performances of Jeff George and Rick Mirer over the course of their careers.

I think that, when you look at the stats, a better—and more recent—comparison to the Jay Cutler deal can be traced all the way back to 2006, when Drew Brees left the San Diego Chargers for the New Orleans Saints after some caustic contract negotiations spurred on by San Diego’s interest in developing Philip Rivers as their quarterback of the future.

Except that the Denver Broncos don’t exactly have a “quarterback of the future” waiting in the wings.  But that’s neither here nor there.

I also think that the only comparison relevant to Devin Hester’s current situation is Steve Smith’s conversion from return man to wide receiver in 2002.  But let’s get some statistical back up for this bold-tasting box of optimism.

Jeff George Can’t Hold the Proverbial Jock Strap

Let me be clear: Jeff George did have Cutler-like years.  After he was traded to Atlanta and when he was in his fifth year in the league. 

He never threw for 3000 yards in his four years with the Indianapolis Colts.  He never threw for more than 16 touchdowns.  In fact, he only threw for more touchdowns than interceptions once in his first four years in the league.

His rookie season. 

Believe it or not, until the trade to Atlanta, he regressed pretty badly from that first year.

Oh yeah, and his best completion percentage was achieved in his first season in Atlanta—a respectable 61.5 percent. Cutler has surpassed that mark in both of his full seasons as starter.

Brees Is A Veritable Purveyor of Jock Straps

Now let’s take a look at Drew Brees’ first five years in the league.  His first season we won’t consider because of his lack of playing time and his 2003 campaign was shortened due to injury and other factors—for my purposes here, we can throw that out as well.  We’ll also toss out Cutler’s first year for fairness.

In his three full starting seasons in San Diego, Drew Brees averaged- 3,340 YPG, 63.6 CMP%, 23TD, 13INT, 90.3 QB RTG.  Is this stat line starting to look familiar?

It should.  In Jay Cutler’s first two starting seasons in Denver he averaged- 4,012 YPG, 63 CMP%, 23TD, 16INT, 87.1 QB RTG.

Now there’s a pretty accurate statistical comparison to a guy that got transitioned at a similar juncture in his career.

And I don’t even need to mention Rick Mirer.  He was awful before he got to the Bears and his career was basically done after one game with them. To whit, did you know that Rick Mirer only had one season in which he threw for more touchdowns than interceptions?  It’s true!

Hall  & Oates…err, Smith

As for Devin Hester as an updated version of Dante Hall, let’s also be clear. 

Last year’s output by Devin Hester at wide receiver beat the best that Dante Hall had to offer as a receiver in any season in his entire career.  He never caught more than Hester, he never scored more than Hester, while never starting as many games as Hester did in his first full season ever playing the position.

Dante Hall’s best stats as a starting wide receiver (each category over the course of his career): 40 REC, 436 YDS, 12.8 Y/R, 3 TD.

Now, let’s take a look at the stats of a certain perennial Pro Bowl receiver named Steve Smith and his first full season as a receiver in 2002- 54 REC, 872 YDS, 16.1 Y/R, 3 TD.

Compare that to Hester’s season totals from last year and I think you’ll start to get the picture.  Keep in mind when you look at his stat line how many times Hester had his man beat last year and wasn’t able to receive the ball on the money.  I can think of at least four instances off the top of my head.

Devin Hester’s 2008 stats- 51 REC, 665 YDS, 13 Y/R, 3 TD.

Hmmm.  Those stat lines are eerily familiar and both are far superior than what Dante Hall was able to produce over the course of his career.

OOOOH YEAH! This Kool Aid Tastes Great.

All I’m saying is that the examples of failure for these types of transitions are numerous and easily cited.  Unfortunately, those examples don’t often hold up to the situation and the quality of players the Bears actually have on their hands this year.

Can Cutler to Hester become a fictional (but often wet-dreamed about) Drew Brees to Steve Smith-like combination for the Bears for years to come?  I’m going to go out on a limb and—based on how startlingly similar their respective stats are over the beginning of their careers—I’m going to say yes.  Emphatically.

So, Bears Nation, take out your No. 2 pencils, pull out a sippy box full of “Cutlerberry” flavored Kool-Aid, and rejoice.  It looks like this might be one of the few standardized tests the Bears may actually pass.