Bears Blitz

Published by Sean Tomlinson on March 30, 2015
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears

Quarterbacks are the NFL’s money kingpins.

There are 15 quarterbacks being paid an average annual salary of at least $15 million, according to Spotrac. Soon enough the Chargers’ Philip Rivers and the Giants’ Eli Manning will vault up the quarterback pay standings with significant raises. They’ll be leapfrogged by the Seahawks’ Russell Wilson and the Colts’ Andrew Luck, two young arms set to see their bank accounts get nice and beefy.

Individually, many deserve to be among the highest paid at the most important position. But collectively they’re responsible for what I’ll call the Jay Cutler model: Staying with what’s present, familiar and hopeful, because there’s no risk available to be taken elsewhere.

That’s why Cutler is still a starting quarterback for the Chicago Bears. Or really, a starting quarterback anywhere.

Cutler is the embodiment of a growing financial conundrum tied to quarterbacks.

Those who fall into even the murky categories of “good” or “pretty alright” still have to be paid according to what’s dictated by the market. And the quarterback market right now is a hungry beast, with its waist growing by a few belt notches each year.

We’ve reached a point where often there’s little other recourse for a general manager than to have his pocket pillaged by the league’s Cutlers. Average performance sprinkled with cringes still feels more inviting and far less petrifying than the alternative: starting over.

A painful $10 million of Cutler’s $16 million base salary in 2016 became guaranteed on March 12. That’s his 2016 salary, and in 2015 he’ll be paid $15.5 million while carrying a cap hit of $16.5 million, all per Spotrac.

At the NFL owners meetings, new Bears head coach John Fox said that although Cutler currently sits atop the depth chart, there will be an “open competition” for the starting quarterback job in 2015 (via John Mullin of CSN Chicago).

That’s what he has to say right now. Fox is the new guy, and Cutler’s tenure filled with failing in Chicago makes him the old guy. The coach has to publicly hint at the possibility of change after Cutler was benched in favor of Jimmy Clausen in 2014.

The reality, though, brings us to the broader problem.

The Bears eventually shot down trade speculation, but that was a meaningless dance. No one was taking on Cutler’s anchor of a salary. That same salary can’t sit and rot on the bench, and regardless, the only sight worse than Cutler as a starter is anyone from the always overflowing pool of replacement-level nothingness (in this case, Clausen) taking meaningful snaps.

So the Bears are forced to wait and hope, repeating that cycle a year after being backed into a similarly dark corner. They either had to pay Cutler as he entered the final year of his contract, sort through the annual list of journeymen free-agent quarterbacks or brace for uncertainty in the draft.

They chose to pay based on the limited promise of past performance, and because pulling the plug on a still reasonably young quarterback (Cutler is 31) is scary. Mostly, keeping Cutler and giving him a seven-year contract worth $126.7 million with $54 million guaranteed felt safe.

Now it feels terrifying.

The Giants’ Eli Manning has earned the NFL’s not-at-all coveted interception crown over the seven seasons since Cutler joined the Bears. But notice the difference in pass attempts, and particularly note the gap there between Cutler and Drew Brees. Since 2009 Cutler is a mere two interceptions behind Brees, even though the New Orleans Saints quarterback has thrown 1,157 more passes.

Paying Cutler in 2014 was essentially a shoulder shrug, the same voluntary movement the Cincinnati Bengals made with their quarterback Andy Dalton as his rookie deal was winding down.

They did so conservatively, giving Dalton a contract loaded with fluff. He received a six-year extension worth a total of $96 million, but only $17 million of that is guaranteed. Smartly there’s some caution embedded within that agreement, though Dalton’s cap hit still rises significantly in 2016 (from $9.6 million to $13.1 million), and then even more in 2017 ($15.7 million).

The configuration is different, and the Bengals aren’t financially tied to Dalton with nearly the same anchor the Bears are strapped to with Cutler. But although they arrived at this point through different paths, the two contracts are still communicating the same thing: We’re paying you because there’s no better alternative, not because we want to or can muster any real long-term trust.

The Bengals are annually a quality regular-season team, doing just enough to make the playoffs but little more. They haven’t won a playoff game since 1990, and they’ve lost in the AFC Wild Card Round four straight times.

In theory, it would be nice to move on from Dalton if 2015 brings more sputtering from a quarterback who’s often been mediocre at best in the regular season, and far worse when it matters in January (six playoff interceptions with only one touchdown).

The Bengals just might rid themselves of Dalton if the 27-year-old doesn’t take a significant step forward in his fifth season. That move would be pain free to absorb financially with all of his guaranteed money gone.

But advancing to the postseason consistently puts Cincinnati in a tough position. Pointing at Dalton’s plateaued regular-season performance or his playoff face planting and citing a need for change is the easy part. A far greater degree of difficulty kicks in with the next step.

Free agency at quarterback is a barren wasteland, and by winning enough to make the postseason the Bengals are usually far removed from ideal territory to draft a first-round quarterback.

“We don’t have time to waste with another QB,” Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis said during the Senior Bowl (via Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com).

“The quarterback competition. Where has it worked? It doesn’t get you wins.”

Roughly translated: Blowing it all up at quarterback makes me want to curl up in a dark corner somewhere. To his credit, Lewis is very good at sticking to a company line.

Then there’s the Kansas City Chiefs and Alex Smith, who’s the union leader of all game managers. Yet he’s still set to account for a $15.6 million cap hit in 2015, which rises to $17.8 million in 2016.

That’s all coming from a contract extension signed in August 2014 which handed Smith a total of $45 million in guaranteed cash (all details per Spotrac). Smith’s average annual pay of $17 million gives him a top-10 base salary at his position.

At that level Smith’s yearly value is only slightly behind the average base salaries given to the Cowboys’ Tony Romo ($18 million) and the Lions’ Matthew Stafford ($17.6 million). He ascended to that money tier and then infamously didn’t throw a single touchdown pass to a wide receiver in 2014.

Smith is 18th in passing touchdowns since 2011, the year when his career as a starter was salvaged in San Francisco by then-49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh. He parlayed that 49ers success into being worthy of a second-round pick in a trade to the Kansas City Chiefs, where Smith was given his shiny new contract.

Here’s exactly where Smith ranks on the touchdown standings over the past four years. Note the Seahawks’ Russell Wilson and his far fewer games played and attempts.

Smith also finished with only 1,390 passing yards through the air in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus, while Romo ended the season with 2,191 yards.

Those numbers reflect both who Smith is as a quarterback and how he’s being used. The Chiefs have leaned on a risk-averse passing attack, utilizing short-to-intermediate passes and plenty of screens to running back Jamaal Charles.

That makes Smith their ideal quarterback. He’s a trusted caretaker with only 13 interceptions over the past two seasons. He’s not asked to live dangerously, and still his basic job description of “please just don’t screw up” is still worth a top-10 salary.

As the salary cap continues to rise the baseline for quarterback contracts will climb, too. Paying for average play will increasingly mean handing over more than average dollars in the current market, with quarterback demand easily trumping the available supply.

The other options of free agency and the draft offer either little appeal, or certainty. So when the choice is between paying or hitting reset, non-franchise quarterbacks will keep getting that sweet franchise cash.

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