Bears Blitz

Published by Sean Tomlinson on May 12, 2015
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears

Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte is fighting a noble fight. But it’s one often lost in his chosen profession as age and money—two familiar foes—clash.

Now a third combatant is possibly set to enter the ring: declining touches. All three are forever linked, of course, because paying running backs who have gone through the NFL gauntlet repeatedly isn’t fashionable.

Doom and decay circles even the somewhat-elderly running back, a category Forte is nearing. He’s preparing to celebrate his 30th year of existence late in the 2015 season. As that birthday nears, Forte and the Bears live in complex times.

The former is heading into the final year of his contract and wants an extension, saying as much to 670 The Score in late April (via Dan Wiederer of the Chicago Tribune). The latter is wrestling with a difficult question: At what point does a workhorse running back fall off his horse?

And when does less become more even if, as new offensive coordinator Adam Gase correctly noted, via Chicago Bears Radio Network‘s Zach Zaidman, Forte can play pretty much every snap?

There are no easy answers here, but eventually every running back reaches the point of diminishing returns. New Bears head coach John Fox is well-versed in that reality, which is why he’s often deployed a committee approach.

Fox spent four seasons with the Denver Broncos, where he implemented his battled-tested method of rotating running backs. During his time as the Broncos’ sideline boss, no running back exceeded 250 regular-season carries, and multiple backs eclipsed 100 attempts each year.

That’s a sharp contrast to the heavy workload Forte has successfully shouldered. Over seven seasons, he’s averaged 259.6 carries per year, and in 2014, the volume of footballs placed in his gut towered over that of any other Bears running back.

That gaping divide between Forte and his primary backup, Ka’Deem Carey, looks only at the Bears’ carry distribution.

The comically massive split grows if we factor in Forte’s prominence as a pass-catcher and plug the same names into a similarly simple chart.

The Bears have had a running back pillar in Forte who’s accounted for 33.3 percent of their total offense over the past two seasons. That’s a significant chunk during a time when he was surrounded by a dynamic group of offensive weapons, including wide receiver Brandon Marshall, who’s since moved on to the New York Jets.

Altering that workhorse approach means a drastic departure from the Bears’ offensive character. Which maybe isn’t such an awful idea for a 21st-ranked unit during Marc Trestman’s final season as head coach. The immediate counterpoint: That offensive bleeding wasn’t on Forte’s hands with the nine games when he totaled 100-plus yards.

So as a coach who’s historically craved freshness in his backfield, how does Fox justify minimizing Forte’s role? How does he find a happy marriage between still riding his versatile pass-catching running back and making sure Forte’s career touch odometer (which currently shows 2,260 touches) doesn’t climb too high?

Maybe he just won’t bother easing up and instead will fight a sort of inner battle against his own tendencies.

Fox was diplomatic at rookie minicamp when reporters asked him about potentially changing the heavy lean toward Forte, essentially telling them to consult the calendar, via Jeff Dickerson of ESPN.com:

It’s a positive that he’s had a number of carries and the production he’s had, both running and catching the ball.

We’ve always been believers in kind of a one-two punch and rolling guys through there… But as I tell guys, they pick the team, and it will be no different at running back with who that guy is and how dependable he is and if he earns that number of reps to get in. We’re early in the process and hopefully somebody kind of sets themselves out.

Fox has motivation to silence his own history. First and foremost, he’s not bound by the future.

Forte isn’t under contract with the Bears beyond 2015. He’s set to earn a maximum of $8.2 million (including incentives, per Spotrac) during potentially his final season in Chicago, and the former second-round pick isn’t blind to the financial realities of his age:

He told 670 The Score that contract-extension talks were brief earlier in the offseason and haven’t picked up since.

“I asked them if we were going to talk about it [after the draft and free agency], and they said ‘no,’” Forte said, via Dickerson.

Even if his demands are reasonable, there will be a hesitation to re-sign Forte after another year of running into linebacker walls. So Fox should operate under what I’ll call the “DeMarco Murray assumption” and take every last bit of tread off his running back’s tires before Forte is coldly discarded.

The Dallas Cowboys and head coach Jason Garrett followed that logic with Murray while squeezing the final drips of production out of their asset. During Murray’s final year in Dallas, he finished with 449 regular-season touches, the sixth-highest all-time single-season mark, per Pro Football reference. Including the playoffs, that pummeling climbed to 497 touches.

A lack of commitment serves as Fox’s first motivation to press his Forte pedal firmly. Then there’s also the other unfortunate fact of his new backfield, the one that leaves him with little other choice.

The Bears’ running back depth chart beyond Forte has situational pieces and a sprinkle of hope. They took a flier on Jacquizz Rodgers, a diminutive (5’6”, 196 lbs) pass-catching specialist who recorded two 50-plus-reception seasons over four years with the Atlanta Falcons. Yet you hear a sad trombone when assessing his ability as a runner. Over 305 career attempts, he’s averaged only 3.7 yards per carry.

The Bears used a fourth-round pick on Jeremy Langford, who posted the fastest 40-yard-dash time among running backs at the 2015 scouting combine (4.43 seconds). He’ll immediately challenge for the No. 2 role behind Forte, and Carey will put up a fight with his all-purpose skills that led to 4,290 yards from scrimmage during his final two seasons at Arizona State.

However, Fox already has an all-purpose running back—and one of the best. He already has a running back whose career includes five seasons with 1,000-plus rushing yards and six with 400-plus receiving yards. And he may only have him for one more year.

If Forte doesn’t have a dominant presence, the Bears don’t have even a reaching shot at establishing a dominant offense.

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