San Francisco 49ers vs. Chicago Bears Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick
Published by OddsShark.com on December 3, 2015
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears are playing some good ball as of late, so perhaps they can start working on establishing some home-field advantage. The Bears have won just one of their last eight games at Soldier Field, going 3-5 against the spread (ATS). They hope to turn that trend around and reach .500 for the season when they host the 49ers Sunday afternoon.
Point spread: Bears opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 42 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 31.2-13.4 Bears
Why the 49ers can cover the spread
San Francisco is now 1-2 straight up (SU) but 2-1 ATS since making a change at quarterback. The 49ers fell at home to Arizona last week 19-13 but hung on for the cover as an eight-point home dog. They trailed the Cardinals 13-3 in the third quarter, rallied to tie the score at 13-13 but fell down for good on a Carson Palmer scoring scramble with just over two minutes to go.
San Francisco then drove inside Arizona territory in the final minute, but came up a couple of yards short on a 4th-and-20. The 49ers outgained the Cardinals 368-337, but two turnovers and 13 penalties took their toll.
New quarterback Blaine Gabbert has hit on 65 percent of his throws since taking over for Colin Kaepernick, for a perfectly healthy 8.1 yards per attempt. Meanwhile, the San Francisco defense has held four of its last six opponents to 20 points or less.
Why the Bears can cover the spread
Chicago is 3-1 SU over its last four games, and 7-1 ATS over its last eight after upsetting the Packers at Lambeau Thursday night 17-13. The Bears spotted Green Bay the first touchdown of the game and then limited the Packers to a pair of field goals from there, pitching a shutout in the second half. Meanwhile, quarterback Jay Cutler hit on 19 of 31 throws, with one touchdown pass and, most importantly, zero picks.
Two weeks ago Chicago failed on a two-point attempt in the last minute and lost to Denver 17-15. But before that the Bears won back-to-back games against San Diego and St. Louis. Over their last four games the defense has allowed an average of just 15 points. At 5-6, Chicago has pulled to within a game of the pace in the battle for the second NFC Wild Card spot.
Smart pick
Chicago is finding ways to win games this season while San Francisco finds ways to lose them. The smart money here backs the Bears.
Betting trends
The 49ers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against the Bears.
The Bears are 1-7 SU in their last eight games at home.
The Bears are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games at home in December.
All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.
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