Flawed Jay Cutler Can Still Have a Big Future in the NFL
Published by Ty Schalter on December 18, 2014
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears
Jay Cutler, in the span of 14 games, has gone from one of the most valuable assets in professional football to one of its biggest liabilities.
His original team, the Denver Broncos, spent a No. 11 overall pick to acquire him. His current team, the Chicago Bears, sent two more first-round picks, as well as a third-rounder and quarterback Kyle Orton, to Denver in exchange for Cutler and a fifth-rounder. This spring, the Bears signed Cutler to a massive seven-year, $126.7 million contract, per Spotrac.com, with $54 million guaranteed.
In Week 16, per the Chicago Tribune‘s Brad Biggs, Cutler will earn more than many of us will ever make to stand around and hold a clipboard:
Backup Jimmy Clausen will start and play against the first-place Detroit Lions, while Cutler is left to sit in a corner and think about what he’s done. This is not how a franchise cornerstone is treated. Bleacher Report National NFL Lead Writer Mike Freeman came to the obvious conclusion: Cutler’s not going to be the foundation of the Bears offense for much longer.
The Bears brought in head coach Marc Trestman to get the best out of Cutler—and statistically, he has. Yet Cutler, and the Bears offense, have fallen far short of their goals.
“We’ve seen moments,” Trestman told Michael C. Wright of ESPN.com, “but we haven’t done it on a consistent basis. I can’t hide from that.”
Cutler’s apparent lack of passion, leadership, dedication and decision-making ability has made all of his physical talent worthless.
Well…not quite worthless.
Cutler, per Pro-Football-Reference.com, ranks seventh in the NFL in completion rate, 10th in touchdown rate and 17th in NFL passer efficiency rating. OK, yes, he’s 19th in sack rate and a miserable 29th in interception rate, but overall he’s produced numbers like a middle-of-the-road starting quarterback.
Why doesn’t it seem like he’s played like one?
Well, there’s that whole thing about the interceptions:
It’s one thing to have a penchant for throwing picks; many quarterbacks can get away with turnovers as a consequence of being aggressive. Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton‘s 3.3 percent interception rate is just below Cutler’s (3.4), but Marvin Lewis isn’t going to turn to backup Jason Campbell unless he absolutely has to.
The problem is, Cutler’s not just throwing picks—he’s throwing bad picks at bad times. On Thanksgiving, with a chance to get back to .500 with a big road division win, Cutler threw the game away.
With just under 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter, the Bears faced a 2nd-and-3 from their 10-yard line. A touchdown on this drive would pull the game to within one score.
The Bears lined up in an offset I formation, with two tight ends in. Both receivers, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, would release outside and run go routes, while tight end Martellus Bennett would combine with running back Matt Forte to create a Hi-Lo combination over the middle:
The Lions were lined up in their base 4-3 with tight press-man coverage on the outside and a single high safety, Glover Quin, alone up top (and shaded toward Jeffery). Just after the snap, Marshall fought off cornerback Darius Slay and came free to the outside:
It’s hard to see from this angle, but Slay stumbled as he tried to turn upfield. Marshall had two steps on Slay, and Quin, the only man behind Marshall, was a long way away.
Now is when to throw it. Now. Cutler, loving the matchup, was locked on to Marshall all the way. As soon as Marshall fought off the jam, Cutler reared back…
…and hesitated.
For no reason, Cutler pulled the ball back down. Marshall had nothing but green turf and white stripes in front of him. Cutler had the matchup he wanted and the play he wanted, and for no discernible reason, he didn’t pull the trigger.
He finally worked up the courage to make the throw—only now, his form had broken down.
He threw stiltedly with all-arm motion, causing the ball to wobble and fall short. This not only gave Slay a chance to make a play on the ball, but Quin a chance to get over:
The result was a wildly improbable tip drill; the ball bounced through Slay’s hands only to flutter into Quin’s diving grasp. Instead of having most of a quarter to close a 31-24 gap, Cutler drove the last nail into the Bears’ Thanksgiving coffin.
It’s these mental mistakes that are killing Cutler and the Bears. Sometimes, he’s far too careless with the ball while trying to make a play. At other times, he’s almost cripplingly afraid to push the ball downfield. Cutler, with his legendarily strong arm, is averaging a nibbly 10.5 yards per completion—31st in the NFL.
Between Marshall, Jeffery, Bennett and Forte, Cutler has one of the most explosive, dynamic, physically dominant set of weapons in the NFL. Yet his confidence appears shot.
Yes, Cutler—whose facial expressions and body language give the air of a guy who doesn’t really care about any of this—seems to be rattled.
The good news is, unlike less gifted quarterbacks who can’t be given his gifts, Cutler’s mental state is something that can be worked on. Even if he remains a shattered, broken shell of the quarterback two different teams believed he could be, he’s still an instant upgrade over quite a few starters in this league.
That’s not just with flailing teams like Washington, the New York Jets and the Tennessee Titans, but bubble teams just a quarterback away from being serious contenders.
Look at the Cleveland Browns. After a surprise run to 7-4, their shortcomings at quarterback will likely keep them out of the playoffs. Johnny Manziel will get every opportunity—but if his second and third starts go as poorly as his first, the Browns would be foolish to assume he’s the long-term answer.
Cutler working with receiver Josh Gordon and tight end Jordan Cameron? In Kyle Shanahan’s run-game- and deep-ball-heavy offense? Yes, please. The Browns defense is worlds better than that of the Bears; they’ve allowed an average of 7.8 fewer points per game in 2014.
OddsShark.com, at the time of this writing, has the Houston Texans getting five points against the AFC North-leading Baltimore Ravens. Imagine swapping out the Texans’ emergency starter, Case Keenum, for Cutler. Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins are as close to a match for Marshall and Jeffery as you’ll find. Arian Foster is no downgrade from Forte, and left tackle Duane Brown anchors a solid offensive line.
Defensively, well, perhaps you’ve heard of J.J. Watt?
After a promising injury-relief effort and a few promising starts, the Philadelphia Eagles‘ Mark Sanchez has returned to his usual form. On the season, his completion rate, touchdown rate, interception rate and NFL passer efficiency rating are all significantly worse than Cutler’s.
Between receiver Jeremy Maclin, tailbacks LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles, and head coach Chip Kelly’s offensive wizardry, Cutler would be able to put up pinball numbers in Philadelphia. The Eagles defense has been up and down, but with Cutler, they’d surely have won even more than nine games by now.
Cutler’s contract makes him difficult to move, as Jason Fitzgerald of Sporting News wrote, but not impossible. Any number of teams might be willing to give the Bears something to get one of the game’s few truly terrifying arms. Or, given the terms of his contract, none might.
Even if Cutler ends up back in Chicago next year, he’ll still have all the same spectacular offensive talent around him; the right coach just might be able to get Cutler’s mojo back and fix the defense.
Either way, Cutler’s career in the NFL is far from over.
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