Bears Blitz

Published by Bear Heiser on October 23, 2014
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears

Life doesn’t get any easier for the 3-4 Chicago Bears this week as they travel to New England to face the 5-2 Patriots on Sunday.

Last week’s colossal failure at home against the Miami Dolphins along with Brandon Marshall‘s outspoken comments could send this Bears team in one of two directions.

Michael C. Wright of ESPN.com suggests that Marshall’s comments, which were spurred on by the loss, could “galvanize” this Bears team; or the Bears drop another game in agonizing fashion and the tailspin continues, which basically would close the door on any hopes for the playoffs.

On paper, the matchup doesn’t bode well for the Bears. The Patriots enter this week as one of the hottest teams in football. Since the Patriots’ embarrassing Week 4 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, New England has won all three of its games, averaging 35.6 points scored along the way. In the three-game stretch, Tom Brady has thrown for 914 yards with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Here’s a fun fact, brought to you via Chicago Bears radio network sideline reporter Zach Zaidman:

Brady is 3-0 in his career against the Bears and holds a career record of 39-11 against the NFC, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.

The Bears’ road to respectability is going to be bumpy a ride with the next two games against New England and the Green Bay Packers, respectively. To make matters more difficult, the Packers (plus-10) and the Patriots (plus-9) are the top two teams in the league in turnover differential.

Though, there’s no one better than Martellus Bennett at finding a silver lining. Bennett shared some words of wisdom Wednesday morning, per Zaidman:

 

One thing that could bring the Bears a little bit closer to pavement is running the football Sunday against the Patriots…

New England boasts the NFL’s top-rated pass defense this season, allowing a meager 208 yards per game. Given how badly the Bears have struggled at moving the ball vertically downfield, getting Matt Forte going early, via the run, is the best way to combat the passing woes.

As we discussed here, Jay Cutler is most successful this season when his throws travel between zero and nine yards downfield (84 percent completions, eight TDs, two INTs). Anything beyond 10 yards downfield is where he struggles (46 percent completions, five TDs, 5 INTs).

Sure, a bubble screen to Forte is a high-percentage throw, but it’s become predictable for the opponent. In order to take New England out of its defensive game plan, the Bears must show they’re something of which they haven’t seen before or at least something the Bears haven’t done in a long while.

This week, via ESPNChicago.com’s Jeff Dickerson, we learned why Forte only received two first-half carries against the Dolphins. Trestman told reporters that Cutler went to the line with 16 run-pass option plays and two straight runs in the first half. Based on the defense Miami showed at the line, Cutler went the passing route on all 16 option plays.

The coach said Wednesday that Cutler made all the right calls, per CBS Chicago’s Dan Durkin:

Trestman wants Cutler to pick the best play each time based on what the defense shows. What that doesn’t account for is the defense’s ability to sit in the same coverage, gaining momentum and feel for the game’s flow.

While Trestman’s offensive mindset features flexibility at the line of scrimmage, it doesn’t necessarily force the defense to deviate from the game plan it worked on in the week leading up. No matter which formations New England lines up in on the first couple of plays Sunday, the Bears need at least 10 rushes in the first half.  

Last week, the Patriots gave up 218 rushing yards to the New York Jets, an average of 5.1 yards per carry. If Chris Ivory can go over 100 yards against New England’s defensive front, then Forte should have a field day if put in the right positions.

Stout in the middle with Vince Wilfork, the Patriots’ defensive line is weak on the outside. Ivory and Chris Johnson did a number on the Patriots when running at or outside the guards, gaining 118 yards on 20 carries, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). The Jets’ three biggest runs of the day—13, 15, 16 yards—came via runs to the outside.

Despite being heavy underdogs coming in, the Jets were able to stick around with the Patriots, only losing 27-25, because they ran the football. The Jets had possession of the ball for over 40 minutes of the game, doubling up the Patriots. The Jets clearly wanted to keep the ball out of Brady’s hands, and that’s exactly what the Bears should attempt to do.

Forte, hands down, has been the Bears’ best offensive player this season, so it only makes sense to put the ball in his hands and let him go to work. Trestman needs to ride the hot hand. Right now, Forte is the hottest hand the Bears have at the moment.

Sustained success in the run game is the only thing that will open up the passing lanes on a consistent basis for Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery to get back to being the best receiving duo in the NFL.

 

Speaking of Marshall and Jeffery…

Those two will have their work cut out for them against the Patriots. Darrelle Revis is capable of locking down one side of the field on his own; while Brandon Browner, who stands at 6’4”, 221 pounds, will be the biggest cornerback the Bears have faced all season.

Marshall and Jeffery both are coming off very forgettable games. The pair combined to catch eight passes for 57 yards on 17 targets. A combined catch rate of 47 percent from the top two receivers on the team is not a winning formula. For more on Marshall and Jeffery’s catch rates, go here.

Part of what spurred Marshall’s postgame comments was his desire to be a larger facet of the Bears offense. Take a look here and you’ll see that Marshall has the lowest catch rate on the team, behind Forte, Bennett and Jeffery. If Marshall wants more action, then catching the ball when it’s thrown to him might be a good route to take.

Two weeks ago against the Buffalo, Revis locked down Bills rookie receiver Sammy Watkins to the tune of two catches for 27 yards on three targets, per PFF. Kyle Orton was still able to move the ball via the pass, as he threw for 299 yards on the day, completing four or more passes to four different receivers.

The week before Buffalo, Revis held Cincinnati Bengals stud receiver A.J. Green to three catches for 64 yards on five targets, per PFF.

You can be sure that Revis will shadow either Marshall or Jeffery come Sunday. It likely will be Marshall due to the physical nature they both bring to the table. Given Browner only played 41 of 87 snaps last week against the Jets in his first action of the season, he’ll likely split action with Alfonzo Dennard and Logan Ryan.

The Bears can win a potential matchup against Browner, whether it be Marshall or Jeffery. Browner is still getting his legs back after missing the first six games of the season. The former Seattle cornerback told reporters this week, via Anthony Gulizia of The Boston Globe, that he slept until noon on Saturday after the Thursday night win over the Jets.

“I felt OK,” Browner said of his return to the field. “I felt better than I thought I would. Technique is hard to work on not being out there. That was one thing I felt I would be iffy, but I was OK. This week will be a good test, seeing if my technique is up to par and if my conditioning is right.”

Browner is going to need rest, and when he does, Cutler needs to throw at whichever receiver finds himself against Dennard or Ryan. In the past three games, Dennard has been lit up for 11 catches for 162 yards and two touchdowns on 17 targets, according to PFF.

 

Bennett also could find himself with a few opportunities…

The Patriots have been giving up a lot of yards of late to tight ends. In the past two weeks, New York’s Jeff Cumberland and Jace Amaro and Buffalo’s Scott Chandler have combined to catch 12 passes for 179 yards on 18 targets.

Bennett was on the injury report after missing Wednesday’s practice due to a hamstring injury, but he told reporters, via Patrick Finley of the Chicago Sun-Times, that he will be back on the field Thursday.

“Sam” linebacker Jamie Collins arguably is New England’s best coverage linebacker. He’s allowed only 15 catches on 30 targets in coverage and hasn’t allowed a touchdown all season, per PFF.

 

New England also has a tight end who could find himself with quite a few opportunities…

Rob Gronkowski is having a subpar season for Rob Gronkowski standards, having caught only 31 passes for 409 yards and four touchdowns. Coming off a torn ACL and MCL that cost him the last few games of last season, Gronkowski appears to be growing more confident about the knee as the season goes on.

In the past three weeks, Gronkowski has caught 18 passes for 262 yards and one touchdown on 30 targets. Sixty-four percent of his total yards and 58 percent of his catches came in that stretch.

Defensive coordinator Mel Tucker talked Wednesday about what the Bears defense needs to do Sunday, reports Kevin Fishbain of ChicagoFootball.com:

When we get the opportunity to jam guys at the line of scrimmage … we need to get that done. We’re going to be working on that all week because that’s going to be important. Everyone’s going to be at the point of attack this week in every phase of the game.

Slowing Gronkowski’s momentum off the line of scrimmage is going to be a tough task for the Bears defense. The job likely will fall to Ryan Mundy and Chris Conte, which doesn’t bode well for the Bears. Tucker should be worried. Opposing tight ends have given Chicago’s defense quite a few problems this season.

 

Not only do the Bears have to worry about covering Gronkowski, running back Shane Vereen also poses a serious threat…

Vereen is the Patriots’ version of Forte, a guy who can do just about everything a running back is expected to do.

The Swiss Army Knife-type back is one week into his unofficial role as starting running back. Stevan Ridley’s season-ending injury opened the door for Vereen to become a larger part of the offense.

And a larger part he’s been. Last week against the Jets, Vereen was all over the place for the Patriots, rushing the ball 11 times for 43 yards and catching five passes for 71 yards and two touchdowns on eight targets.

Brady loves what Vereen brings to the table, as he spoke Wednesday about his running back, per Lee Schechter ESPN Boston:

… He’s done such a great job for us over the time that he’s been here. I think dependability really sums it up, and he’s really an explosive player for us, too. It’s just trying to continue to find ways to get him the ball because he does a lot of great things when it’s in his hands.

 

A surefire way to slow Gronkowski and Vereen is to slow Brady…

Brady is as good as his protection. After being sacked nine times in the first four games, leading to a 2-2 record, Brady has been sacked just four times in the last three games, and the Patriots are undefeated.

The best way to get Brady off his game is to disrupt his internal clock. The Bears need to make him feel pressure, even if they aren’t sacking the quarterback. It’s the pressure that’s key.

“If you keep him off that spot, you keep him uncomfortable in the pocket, you keep him off rhythm,” Lamarr Houston said, per Fishbain. “You don’t want a good quarterback like that to get comfortable in the pocket because then they’ll start making plays at will.”

The pressure needs to center around the two men at the center of the Bears’ defensive line, Jeremiah Ratliff and Stephen Paea. They both have the ability to implode the Patriots’ offensive line.

Brady isn’t a mobile quarterback, so he’s not going to move the pocket. What he will do is move around within the pocket. He’s got some of the best footwork of any quarterback in the NFL. Pressure up the middle will restrict Brady’s ability to extend plays by finding gaps in the pocket.

“He’s going to stand there until someone gets in front of his face and pressures him. It’ll be a good matchup for us,” Paea said, via Fishbain.

It’s do-or-die time for the 2014 Chicago Bears. The Bears can win this game by rushing Forte down the Patriots’ back and locking down the middle of the field on defense. Sadly, recent events tell you the odds are better that it doesn’t happen. And if it doesn’t, it’s about to get much uglier next week in Green Bay. 

Sunday evening we’ll know exactly what this team is all about.

PREDICTION: Bears 31, Patriots 30 (Because why not, right?)

 

All quotes transcribed from press conference transcripts unless otherwise noted.

All statistics provided by Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.

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