Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick
Published by OddsShark.com on September 7, 2016
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears
A pair of teams heading in opposite directions meet Sunday as the Houston Texans host the Chicago Bears in a Week 1 matchup at NRG Stadium. The Texans look to build on a 9-7 season that earned them the AFC South title, while the Bears finished 2015 on a 2-5 straight up slide, leaving them with a 6-10 record on the campaign.
Point spread: Texans opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 45.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.4-12.3 Texans (NFL picks on every game)
Why the Bears can cover the spread
The Bears put together a 5-6 record before a late-season collapse left them outside the playoff picture for a fifth consecutive year. Chicago tallied just one home win in 2015 but cannot be underestimated on the road, where they played their best ball. The Bears went 5-2 SU in their final seven road dates, all as underdogs, including a 17-13 win over rival Green Bay in Week 12.
Quarterback Jay Cutler remains the key to the Bears’ success. The 11-year veteran connected on seven touchdown passes in his last four outings, overcoming injuries that plagued the receiving corps all of last season.
The Bears have also beefed up their defense, which ranked 22nd against the rush last season, adding linebackers Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan. However, they still face a huge task containing a Texans offense that scored at least 24 points in four of their past five home dates.
Why the Texans can cover the spread
The Texans impressed in the preseason, going a perfect 4-0 SU and against the spread while leading the league with 25.5 points per game. That is welcome news in light of their struggles with consistency last season, losing consecutive games on three occasions.
Houston proved to be a tough place to play for opponents, particularly in the second half of 2015, when the Texans kicked off a 4-1 SU and ATS run, allowing just 35 total points in those four wins, according to the Odds Shark NFL Database.
The importance of J.J. Watt’s return to action cannot be overstated. The three-time Defensive Player of the Year will create havoc for the Bears’ offensive line, which allowed passers to be sacked 13 times during the preseason.
Smart pick
Cutler has demonstrated the ability to lead the Bears to unlikely victories but starts the season after having little time to work with an offense left shorthanded by injuries to key personnel, including Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal and Zach Miller.
The Texans, meanwhile, have gained the confidence of bettors by going 8-1 SU in their past nine games as betting chalk and look poised to improve their all-time record against Chicago to a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS.
Betting trends
The Bears are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games against the Texans.
The total has gone under in four of the Texans’ last five games.
The Texans are 8-1 SU in their last nine games as favorite.
All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
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