Bears Blitz

Published by Bear Heiser on November 26, 2014
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears have to turn it around quickly this week with a matchup with the Detroit Lions set for Thanksgiving Day.

The Bears and Lions enter the holiday on two very different paths, yet with one very similar, very distinct trait.

Chicago, led by second-year head coach Marc Trestman, currently sits with a 5-6 record after back-to-back wins in which the defense allowed a grand total of 26 points.

Detroit, on the other hand, led by first-year head coach Jim Caldwell, enters the week at 7-4 after back-to-back losses in which the offense didn’t score a touchdown.

To find the similarities between the teams, look no further than the offensive side of the ball, where quarterbacks Jay Cutler and Matthew Stafford have failed to play like their respective team’s franchise quarterbacks this season. Cutler turns the ball over more than any other quarterback in the league, while Stafford has managed to throw only 13 touchdown passes this season (Cutler has 22).

Both teams have prolific offenses on paper, but each unit has looked more paper thin than prolific this season. Chicago enters the week ranked 20th in the NFL in points scored per game (20.5), while Detroit falls further down the list at 28th (17.9). The 38.4 total points scored between the two is down significantly from last season, when the Bears and Lions combined to score 52.5.

On the defensive side, it’s been a much different story, for both squads. Chicago, despite some very, very uneven performances, has shown up more than the so-called high-powered offense. Remove the blowout losses to New England and Green Bay, and Mel Tucker’s defense is averaging 21.8 points against. That would rank the Bears tied for 14th in points allowed.

Detroit’s defense has been even better, leading the points allowed with 17.3. The rushing defense, led by Ndamukong Suh, the best defensive tackle in football, according to Pro Football Focus‘ advanced metrics (subscription required), tops the NFL in fewest rushing yards allowed with 70.7, nearly five yards fewer than the second-best Denver Broncos.

 

Matchup to Feast on

Suh will be going up against Bears Pro Bowl right guard Kyle Long, rated the seventh-best guard in the league, according to PFF. If you want a fun underlying story to follow, this matchup is going to be fast and furious. And it wouldn’t be all that shocking to see it get a little bit dirty, and may not be suitable for children.

This matchup is receiving a lot of hype early on. The courtesy for said hype goes to Long’s teammate and former Detroit Lion Willie Young, who responded Tuesday very colorfully when asked by a reporter how Long’s “motor” will keep up against a guy who never quits in Suh, via Adam Jahns of the Chicago Sun-Times.

Sheesh, neither does Kyle Long. Have you seen this guy after touchdowns? I’m like, ‘This is a 300-pound man. And he’s like in the back of the end zone. That’s like a 60-yard sprint.’ Like, ‘Wow.’ And that’s in practice, [too]. It’s never-ending. He’s probably somewhere jumping on top of the building with his helmet on, with no shirt on, in the snow. That’s the kind of guy Kyle Long is, so it’s going to be a very exciting matchup, man. It’s going to be that kind of game.

Long has yet to allow a sack this season, obviously tops in the league. Suh only has 4.5 sacks but leads the league in quarterback hurries with 29. Bleacher Report Featured Columnist Matt Eurich went back and detailed a Long-Suh matchup from 2013. Go check it out.

 

Winning the Turnover Battle …

Obvious, right? Winning the turnover battle? That’s Football 101. Nothing new here.

Except, winning the turnover battle, for some reason, seems like an outside, outlandish concept for this Bears team.

Take away the four turnovers forced Sunday in the win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Bears’ season turnover total looks drastically different. Through 11 games (5-6), the Bears have forced 18 turnovers and have allowed 21. In the five wins, the Bears are winning the turnover battle 13-4. In the six losses, the Bears are losing 5-17.

For the Bears to win the turnover battle in Detroit, Jay Cutler will need to be better than Jay Cutler. The Bears quarterback currently sports a league-high 18 giveaways (of 21 total, remember) on the season.

Despite throwing for just 130 yards against Tampa Bay, Cutler shockingly didn’t throw an interception for the first time since Week 6.

That’s kind of a big deal when you think about it. The Bears have shown this season that they cannot overcome multiple Cutler turnovers and still win. The numbers tell that story. The Bears are just 1-6 when Cutler commits multiple turnovers.

The game plan for Cutler to play a blemish-free game is simple: Keep it simple, stupid.

Tom Brady kept it pretty simple in the New England Patriots’ blowout win over the Lions last Sunday. Here’s how his passing chart breaks down, via Pro Football Focus (subscription required):

That right there is the game plan of a team who wants to methodically move the ball downfield, limiting mistakes, which is exactly what Cutler and the Bears need to do Thursday in Detroit. Offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer spoke Tuesday about the need to look at what New England did against Detroit, via Dan Durkin of CBS Chicago.

Cutler has excelled this season on short, quick-developing plays. His passing chart against Minnesota tells the story, and the high averages are a reflection of his season totals:

Defensively, the Bears must pick right back up where they left off Sunday at Soldier Field, when the Tucker-coached squad made Buccaneers coach Lovie Smith and quarterback Josh McCown wish they had just skipped this week.

Led by a strong pass rush that recorded five sacks, 13 quarterback hits, two interceptions and two fumble recoveries, the unit played your typical bend-but-don’t-break style of defense, holding Tampa Bay to 13 points with 367 total yards of offense.

Bend, bend, bend, bend, force turnover—something like that.

 

Start Strong…

When Coach Trestman spoke to the media Monday, he used phrases like “out of sequence” and “out of sync with the game plan” on more than a few occasions, referring to the Bears’ early-game struggles on offense.

The first half of Chicago’s win over Tampa Bay is a good example of what Trestman is talking about. Not only did the Bears continue the streak of failing to score a touchdown in the first quarter, one that has been running since Week 6, the Trestman-led offense failed to score in the first half for the third time in five games and managed to rack up just 69 yards and zero plays in the red zone.

Chicago ran six drives in the first half against Tampa Bay, with an average drive length of 4.66 plays, a yards-per-drive average of 11.5 and an average drive time of 2.01 seconds. That’s not exactly Super Bowl-winning stuff right there, and Trestman knows it, via ChicagoBears.com:

The same issues have been occurring every week. Four of the Bears’ six first-half drives against Tampa Bay were halted by either a penalty, a turnover or a missed field goal.

No wonder Trestman talks about how difficult it is for the Bears to get in “sequence.” For Thursday, in an absolute must-win game, Trestman now needs to learn from the mistakes of his team and realize that his team needs to be protected from itself.

From the first time Cutler takes a snap under center, the game plan needs to revolve around painfully long drives that feature a lot of quick dropbacks, slant routes, Matt Forte runs and plays in which Martellus Bennett blocks at the point of attack before entering his route.

Building some early momentum will open up the field for Cutler, Marshall and Alshon Jeffery to find over-the-top throws, something that was nonexistent last week against Tampa Bay, when the Bears registered only one play of 20-plus yards. 

Once an offense can successfully go downfield once or twice, the defense has to wake up and adjust. Trestman acknowledged his offense’s inability to move the ball downfield, via ChicagoBears.com:

As previously stated, this Bears team has a great offense on paper. Aside from lacking that same greatness in reality, Trestman’s offense also lacks confidence. So how about the first half Thursday is designed to flood with confidence every single member of the Bears’ offensive unit.

Trestman no longer can walk into the building on game day with the hope that his team will simply figure it out. It’s time the head coach accepts what he has and figures it out for them.

 

Destroy Stafford’s Protection…

This Bears team was left for dead a few weeks ago, following a three-game losing streak of which 133 points were allowed on defense.

The status quo certainly has changed since then, as the Bears are now winners of back-to-back games of which a total of 26 points were allowed. That 26 points is the fewest number of points allowed in a two-game stretch since Weeks 5 and 7 of the 2012 season.

Translation: This Bears defense is so hot right now.

You know who isn’t so hot right now? The Stafford-led Lions offense that hasn’t scored a touchdown in either of the last two games, both losses.

The Lions enter as one of the NFL’s most inefficient teams on offense, scoring just 17.9 points per game, 28th-worst in the league. This has happened with a so-called franchise quarterback under center, an All-World wide receiver in Calvin Johnson and a third-team All-World selection in Golden Tate (obviously a joke, there is no “third-team All-World” award).

In order to continue to beat down the Lions, the Bears must destroy the protection around Stafford. The word “destroy” was used because the Bears must use any and all hate for the Lions when the ball kicks off Thursday, because as the wins keep piling up, each next game becomes that much more important.

“It’s a ‘rival,’” defensive end Willie Young said Tuesday, via ChicagoBears.com. “Outside of everything else, once you say ‘rival’ you kind of know instantly what it’s all about. Hostile environment. Very physical game. You can just about expect flags to be thrown all over the field because it’s just going to be that kind of environment.”

Young, the former Lion, seems to think this game could get ugly. The Bears just need to hope that it gets ugly because Stafford takes six sacks in the first half, which isn’t necessarily out of the realm of possibility.

Only five teams have allowed more sacks this season than the Lions. Stafford has taken 33 sacks on 462 dropbacks in 11 games, according to PFF.

Last week, New England registered two sacks and six quarterback hits on Stafford. The week before New England, in a loss to the Arizona Cardinals, Stafford took four sacks and nine quarterback hits. Remember, the Lions failed to score a touchdown in either game.

Twenty-four of the Lions’ 33 sacks allowed came on plays in which the defense didn’t send a blitz, which is more similar to the style of defense Tucker calls on the Bears sideline. Based on those numbers, the Bears, in theory, should be able to generate a pass rush with four guys.

Stafford doesn’t play well under pressure, either. He’s faced pressure on 152 dropbacks, according to PFF, completing around 39 percent of his passes with a QB rating of 69.0.

The entirety of the Bears defensive line has been playing better of late, generating more consistent pressure. The turf at Ford Field should make matters a bit easier, too. Jared Allen played the majority of his career on turf, racking up those huge sack numbers on an indoor surface.

But Allen can’t be the only source of pressure. Stephen Paea, who is coming off his best game of his season, maybe even his career, Jeremiah Ratliff, Allen and Young all need to play their best team game of the season in Detroit, against a Lions team that needs to win just as much as the Bears.

 

Prediction: Bears 27, Lions 26

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