Analyzing Chicago Bears’ Best Trade Options with 7th Pick in NFL Draft
Published by Matt Eurich on February 8, 2015
Article Source: Bleacher Report - Chicago Bears
Following a disappointing 5-11 season in 2014, the Chicago Bears will now start to rebuild the organization from the ground up. The organization made changes to the front office and coaching staff by bringing in general manager Ryan Pace and head coach John Fox earlier this offseason, and now they will focus on improving the roster.
While a major focus in the coming weeks will placed on free agency, the Bears could improve their roster by exploring trade options with their first-round pick.
It is unlikely the Bears will try to move up in the draft—or that they will try to move the pick for a current NFL player—meaning the team’s best option to get the most value out of the seventh overall pick may be by trying to trade back.
As valuable as the pick could be for the Bears if they decide to draft someone like Missouri pass-rusher Shane Ray or Washington nose tackle Danny Shelton, they may be able to get more value for the pick if they can find a team that wants to move up.
In order for the Bears to find a willing trade partner, certain scenarios will have to play out during the first six picks of the draft.
Marcus Mariota Drops
In recent years, it has been proven NFL teams can find viable starting quarterbacks outside of the first round, but typically quarterbacks with the most success have been those who were selected in the first round.
Unlike in the past, this year’s draft class boasts two top-level quarterbacks in Florida State’s Jameis Winston and Oregon’s Marcus Mariota, but the talent drops off precipitously after them.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers hold the first overall pick and are expected to take either Winston or Mariota when it is their turn at the podium. Winston appears to be the better prospect of the two on paper considering the offense he ran while at Florida State, but there are plenty of question marks regarding his character and maturity as he heads to the NFL.
Even with his checkered past, an NFL team will be willing to take a risk on him because of his talent and potential. Both Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller and ESPN’s Todd McShay have Winston going No. 1 to Tampa Bay in their latest mock drafts. If Winston goes No. 1, Mariota will likely land somewhere in the top 10.
So what does that mean for the Bears?
While teams like the Tennessee Titans (second overall pick) and New York Jets (sixth overall pick) both have a need at the quarterback position, it is possible Mariota could still be available when the Bears pick at No. 7.
Even though the Bears have Jay Cutler under contract through the 2020 season, his money is only guaranteed for this season and next. Fox was noncommittal about Cutler’s future in Chicago when he spoke at his introductory press conference last month.
“I’m looking forward to getting to know Jay,” Fox said at the time, via Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com. “I just reminded him that this game’s only fun when you win, and we will.”
They could potentially move on from him either this offseason or next if they feel that a guy like Mariota is the long-term answer.
Mariota threw for 10,796 yards with 105 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in his three seasons in Eugene, but there are concerns his success in college was based off the scheme he ran. In his scouting report on Mariota, CBSSports.com’s Rob Rang listed scheme familiarity as a weakness in the Heisman Trophy winner’s skill set, writing:
The Ducks’ innovative offense simplifies QB decisions and this is roughly the same scheme Mariota played in high school. As such, some of the basics like taking the ball from under center and scanning downfield while dropping back are skills Mariota hasn’t been asked to master yet. Overly reliant on his first read, and occasionally commits the cardinal sin of throwing late across his body. Accuracy can be an issue, as Mariota misses too many open receivers, including high-percentage underneath passes.
If the Bears opt to keep Cutler and pass on Mariota, they may be able to add additional draft picks if they can find a willing trade partner.
One potential trade partner could be the Philadelphia Eagles. Head coach Chip Kelly coached Mariota at Oregon, and according to NJ.com’s Mark Eckel, a source says the Eagles are going to attempt to move up in the draft to select Mariota.
“From No. 20, it’s certainly not going to be easy,” the source told Eckel.”It’s probably going to take moving up twice to do it. There’s going to be some wheeling and dealing involved. Can it happen?’ I don’t know. But they’re going to try.”
In order for the Eagles to make the jump for No. 20 to No. 7, they would likely have to give up a handful of picks.
The Bears could ask for something similar to what the Cleveland Browns received from the Atlanta Falcons in 2011 when Atlanta jumped from the 27th pick to the sixth pick to take wide receiver Julio Jones. The Browns received the 27th, 59th and 124th picks in the 2011 draft, as well as Atlanta’s first- and fourth-round picks in 2012.
While the Eagles would only have to jump 13 spots compared to Atlanta’s 21, the Bears could still be able to nab at least a first- and second-round pick in 2015 with a possibility of receiving more picks in 2016 if Philadelphia is willing to pull the trigger.
If the cost of moving up is too much for the Eagles, the St. Louis Rams and the Cleveland Browns could also be considered. The Rams still have Sam Bradford under contract, but he has been underwhelming for the organization since being selected No. 1 back in 2010.
With the Rams only having to move up three spots to No. 7, the Bears likely would not receive much more than a potential second-round selection in addition to the 10th overall pick.
Cleveland currently holds the 12th and 19th overall picks and may have a need for a quarterback after news surfaced last week that 2014 first-round pick Johnny Manziel entered rehab.
Manziel could return as the starter in 2015, but Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com wrote in December the “Browns will explore all of their options at quarterback, including trading up into the top five to draft Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota.”
If the Browns are desperate enough, they may be willing to pull the trigger and trade both of their first-round picks if they truly believe Mariota is the best guy for the job.
Even if Mariota is not available when Chicago’s selection comes up in late April, the Bears could still use the pick as a bargaining chip if other teams are interested in someone who is still on the board.
Offensive Playmakers Remain on the Board
Despite Chicago’s struggles on offense last season, the team does not have any big offensive needs that have to be addressed in the first round.
The Bears could use some help along the offensive line—and they need to add depth at wide receiver and running back. But with so many needs on defense, the team could also use the seventh overall pick as a bargaining chip to move back and collect more picks to address needs on defense if playmakers like Alabama’s Amari Cooper or West Virginia’s Kevin White are still on the board.
Cooper finished the 2014 season with 124 catches for 1,727 yards with 16 touchdowns and was a finalist for the Heisman Trophy. He was absolutely dominant last year for the Crimson Tide, and he has already been compared to one of the NFL’s all-time best receivers.
“Amari is super athletic, very fluid and highly skilled as a route runner and hands catcher,” said former NFL general manager and Senior Bowl executive director Phil Savage, via NFL.com. “Because of his reserved demeanor and similar ability, I compared him to Marvin Harrison during the season.”
White, on the other hand, finished last season with 1,447 yards on 109 catches with 10 touchdowns. Just as Miller discussed in the video above, the gap between White and Cooper might not be as big as many had previously thought.
There is no guarantee wide receiver Brandon Marshall returns to the Bears next season because of his past transgressions, but if he does return, the team has no real reason to pursue either Cooper or White.
Teams like Cleveland, San Francisco (15th pick) and Houston (16th pick) could all be in the running for a wide receiver, and Chicago could potentially trade back to one of those spots and still be able to address needs on defense. Moving back will likely only nab the Bears another second- or third-round pick, but if they feel like they can still get good value by dropping back a few spots, it could be worth it.
While Ray and Shelton likely won’t still be available, pass-rushers Dante Fowler and Alvin Dupree, safety Landon Collins or inside linebacker Benardrick McKinney could be available between picks 12 and 19 and would fill big needs defensively for the Bears.
Even if the Bears are able to work out a deal and drop back a few spots in the first round, there are still risks involved.
Bears Need to Use Caution If They Do Opt to Trade Back
On the surface it sounds like a no-brainer for the Bears to try and move out of the No. 7 pick if there is a great offer on the table, but Miller cautioned Bears fans this past week on WSCR AM 670 in Chicago about how trading back is not always the best option.
“I’d be leery of trading back very far,” Miller told the Boers and Bernstein Show last Thursday, via CBSChicago.com. He continued:
There’s like 11 guys who are really good. You trade back too far, you’re getting into that second level. Let’s just for argument’s sake say they trade back to 15 with San Francisco. You know, you have a chance at Landon Collins out of Alabama. You probably have a chance for Benardrick McKinney, the inside linebacker from Mississippi State, but you’re really starting to roll the dice there.
At first it looked like the Browns got a nice haul in the Jones trade back in 2011, but other than solid production from first-round pick Phil Taylor, they got very little in return from the remaining picks in the deal. The draft is already a very hit-or-miss scenario, and Miller thinks this draft class has enough talent at the top to keep the Bears from trading down.
“The way this draft class looks, I have about 11 guys who I really, really like who are going to be legitimate, high first-round players and would be in most years,” Miller said. “So the Bears are in a good spot. The Bears don’t have to do anything. They just have to wait and draft one of those guys.”
Whether the Bears decide to trade down or stay put with the seventh overall pick, the 2015 draft is going to be extremely important for Pace in his first year as general manager. Luckily for him, this year’s draft has a lot of talent on the defensive side of the football, and the team could set itself up for sustained success if he is able to put together a solid first draft.
There is no guarantee the Bears trade back in this draft, but if they do, there could be a handful of options if guys like Mariota, White and/or Cooper fall.
In the end, Pace and the organization will have to determine whether or not a dynamic prospect at No. 7 means more to the organization in the long run than the potential of someone in the middle of the draft—combined with a few additional picks—would mean for the team’s future.
Statistical information courtesy Sports-Reference.com.
Matt Eurich is an NFL/Chicago Bears Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America.
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